#3 Picking out the Glitches
Even professional gamblers will admit that there is no such thing as a sure-fire system and anyone who suggests otherwise is wrong. For them, it’s all about mathematical probability and that can either come from trading, matched betting or finding value in the markets.
Matched betting involves picking up free bets, usually sign up offers from around the sportsbooks and then using a back and lay system with the help of the exchanges to return a profit. If you do your sums right, those profits should be guaranteed but matched betting can be finite and not much use as a long-term strategy for those who want to treat sports betting like a business.
Many bettors start out believing that they can make a living by picking out winners but this is the wrong approach because quite simply, no-one is going to be right all of the time. Even a high percentage of wins is unlikely because the bookmakers have everything in their favour and they will always win out in the long term.
The answer for those who successfully treat sports betting like a business is to find value in the markets. This is a little hard to define but essentially, it involves exploiting frequent glitches in the system where the probability of an outcome landing is higher than the odds suggest. In short, the bookies will have undervalued a certain bet and got the price wrong.
By concentrating solely on this aspect, many punters find continued instances where value occurs and over time, they successfully turn their betting strategy into a profitable business. It all comes back to the notion of mathematical probability and that’s one of the biggest keys to success.
The example that is always used is a coin toss: Many bookmakers have markets in sports such as cricket where a coin is tossed in order to make a certain decision at the start of a game. In theory, the odds of either heads or tails landing is 50/50 and where a bookmaker does offer prices, both outcomes tend to be listed at the same decimal price of 1.91.
However, what if a bookie was offering 60/40 on either heads or tails to land? The odds suddenly have value and this is where a profit can be made. While it may be unlikely that unbalanced odds will actually be provided for a coin toss market, there are many examples where the probability of an outcome coming in is higher than the prices suggest. The best advice that can be given is to research this in more detail because for many, this is the essence of professional betting.